Any time a new president is elected, it has a substantial influence on the future of employment law. With President-Elect Donald Trump entering office, business owners, employees, and investors may be wondering: How could the second Trump administration affect employment law? Luckily, I am here to help you understand how this second term could potentially shape the future of employment law.
Employment law-related topics are always on the forefront of news coverage because it impacts so many levels of society. As a legal media commentator, I am often asked about topics related to employment law, workplace trends, and policies. I am here to provide keen insights into how the Trump administration could impact employment law.
How Could the Newly Elected Trump Administration Affect Employment Law?
It is still unclear what the future holds for the future of employment laws under President-Elect Donald Trump, and as his recent nomination of Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor has demonstrated, he is more than capable of surprising.
However, there are some trends that could help make educated guesses. So, how could the newly elected Trump administration affect employment law? Here are some things to consider.
Related Article: Trump Secretary of Labor Nominee former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer: Who is She & What Does Her Nomination Mean for Employment Law?
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Unions
During his campaign, Trump made repeated appeals to organized labor, and some suspect that these overtures could lead to more labor-friendly policies than we have been used to seeing from other Republican leaders. But this is far from a guarantee.
Many experts agree that his administration will rebalance the scales when it comes to federal labor law policy, and employers will generally have more leeway over the next four years.
While many believe that unions and many workers benefited from the Biden administration’s actions and decisions over the past few years, over the course of this next administration, these efforts could be wiped clean.
More specifically, many experts are expecting the second term to impact employment law and unions through the following potential changes:
- Restrictions on union elections
- A right-to-work expansion
- Bargaining obligations
- Federal procurement and labor preferences
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Workplace Safety
Similarly, many experts expect that a Trump administration will likely reduce government oversight on workplace safety issues.
During his first term in office, his administration cut the number of inspectors to the lowest amount in OSHA’s history. Expect more of the same over the next four years, particularly in low-violation industries.
For example, instead of mandating specific standards for different categories of potential workplace danger, you can expect a Trump-led OSHA to enforce safety concerns using the OSH Act’s General Duty Clause, and anticipate that the proposed heat safety rule that is slated to take effect as soon as 2025 to be scaled back dramatically or scrapped altogether.
Other changes to employment law under the second Trump administration include softened COVID-19 standards and deregulation in high-risk industries, such as construction, manufacturing, and energy that reduces compliance burdens on employers.
Still, workplace safety is not the end for employers wondering, How will the Trump administration affect employment law? Wages could be impacted, too.
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Wages
Vice President Harris supported a federal minimum wage increase from $7.25/hour to $15/hour, but we do not anticipate seeing such a dramatic increase, if any, under the Trump administration. During his first term, he made no move to increase the rate.
Still, the 2024 GOP platform on the Trump campaign’s website actually supports “raising wages.” So, it would not be a total surprise to see a push for a slight increase to the federal minimum wage, but we do not expect the increase to be anywhere near $15/hour.
Because the first Trump administration scaled back Obama-era efforts to expand the availability of overtime pay, we also expect to see similar efforts to limit such expansions of coverage of overtime laws, or possibly even the introduction of rollbacks.
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris agreed in a rare moment by supporting legislation that ends federal income taxes on tips for hospitality workers.
Supporters of this position say that this move would help employees take home more pay without forcing hospitality employers to increase base wages in the face of high inflation and low margins. Critics, on the other hand, worry that income-tax-free tips could drive base wages down, encourage customers to tip less, and cause revenue shortfall for the federal government.
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on the Equal Employment Opportunity Laws
The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) has already announced its desire to resurrect “Component 2” pay data collection as part of your annual EEO-1 submission, but there is little doubt the Trump administration will put an end to this initiative before it gets started.
This proposal would require employers to turn over information to the government about the wages they pay their workers and the number of hours they work. It’s fair to predict this because Trump’s first administration dropped the very same revised EEO-1 report the EEOC is now seeking to revive.
The EEOC and other commissions would then use this data to identify pay gaps and target specific employers to investigate alleged pay discrimination practices. The first Trump administration cited concerns that the revised collection of information lacked practical utility, would be unnecessarily burdensome, and failed to adequately address privacy and confidentiality issues.
Generally, we can look to Donald Trump’s first term for some insights into what we can predict for other equal opportunity issues.
During his first term, the EEOC adopted a more conservative approach to enforcement of civil rights laws, and during that time, the Commission focused on individual claims over systemic investigations and scaled back aggressive enforcement of workplace discrimination laws.
Because of this, we can anticipate some developments:
- Limiting expansive interpretations of discrimination.
- Focusing on mediation and settlements.
- Limiting DEIA initiatives.
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Paid Leave
The United States remains the only industrialized nation that does not provide a federal mandate that ensures workers have at least some paid time off to manage an illness for the birth of a child.
Trump took a big step during his first term in 2020 by approving a law allowing federal employees to take 12 weeks of paid paternal leave.
This precedent, combined with Trump’s appeal to middle-class working voters as a key demographic, could mean that the second Trump administration pushes for a federal paid leave law.
But it is still unlikely that real momentum will develop in this area because, similar to minimum wage, this is an area where many employers are already facing a multitude of local and state-paid sick leave requirements, and it seems likely that federal lawmakers will allow the issue to remain at the state level for the next several years.
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Immigrant Worker Issues
It’s no secret that immigration reform was a major concern of the first Trump administration, which had a significant impact on foreign nationals and U.S. employers, and we should expect more of the same. On his recent campaign trail, he doubled down on this reform.
Expect a shift that reduces reliance on highly skilled foreign workers, more roadblocks for employers who rely on the H-1B visa program, as well as a higher standard for issuing employment-based green cards while expanding penalties for employers who harbor undocumented workers.
Specifically, Trump has suggested that he intends to end programs like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
Generally, his immigration policies will likely have a significant impact on the available workforce, with DACA alone accounting for over 500,000 workers.
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Issues Related to the Use of Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace
Last year, the Biden-Harris administration issued an AI executive order that contained several items that could impact the workplace. However, Trump’s campaign platform promised to repeal it, as he described it as “dangerous” and an impediment to innovation.
It is likely that these items will be scrapped early on in the second term. He has not yet provided details about how he’ll address AI issues, but if we don’t see federal action at the agency or legislative level, we’ll start to see courts impose liability on employers, businesses, and AI developers for unintentional discrimination and other actions that don’t abide by best practices.
Lastly, worker classification should be on your radar for employers asking, How could the Trump administration affect employment law for the next four years?
Related Article: New Colorado AI Anti-Discrimination Bill Polices Use of AI
The Trump Administration’s Potential Impact on Worker Classification Issues
The next Trump administration will likely reverse President Biden’s efforts that made it harder for businesses to classify workers as independent contractors, which limits access to benefits like overtime and unemployment insurance.
Because under the first Trump administration, the DOL issued rules making it easier for companies to classify workers as independent contractors instead of employees, many experts are predicting more of the same, facilitating gig economy business models.
While Trump’s campaign did not provide any specifics on how his administration would address this issue, the administration under his first term finalized a new rule that would have made it easier for businesses to characterize some workers as contractors for wage and hour purposes.
The Biden Department of Labor eventually froze it without it ever taking effect and reversed many of the changes that occurred under the Trump administration using executive action. This provides some insight into what to expect as the President-Elect attempts to regain ground.
Related Article: Uber Loses Gig Worker Appeal: What it Means for Drivers and the Future of Work
Thought Leader, Media Personality, Professional Speaker, & Legal Commentator on How the Trump Administration Could Impact Employment Law
Understanding how the second Trump administration could affect employment law is imperative for both employees and employers. I am an expert on the nuances of discussing politics in the workplace and all aspects of employment law and am uniquely positioned and qualified to provide expert insight and analysis on all employment law issues. These issues can be complex, so you need a seasoned legal professional to shed light on them. My passion is being a beacon in uncertain times of transition that provides that light.
Employment Law Thought Leader & Professional Speaker on How the Trump Administration Could Affect Employment Law, Employment Law Trends, and Breaking Employment Law News
In this tumultuous political climate, understanding how the second Trump term could affect employment law is crucial for employees and employers alike. I am a former employment and labor law attorney turned mediator, ADR, and conflict resolution specialist who believes it is imperative to stay current with groundbreaking changes to employment law for employees and employers alike. My passion is educating the general public on recent developments in employment law and the workplace trends that impact them as a thought leader and legal commentator. As such, I am uniquely qualified to address the issue of discussing politics in the workplace. My more than 20 years of experience as a media legal analyst and contributor led to my radio show on Tavis Smiley’s KBLA Talk 1580, “Legal Lens with Angela Reddock.” I also am a regular speaker and blogger on employment law and issues related to the workplace.
Also, learn more about my book – The Workplace Transformed: 7 Crucial Lessons from the Global Pandemic – here – https://angelareddock-wright.com/book/.
To follow and stream my Legal Lens Podcast, visit here – The Legal Lens Podcast.
For media inquiries, please reach out to josh@kwsmdigital.com.
For more information regarding mediation and dispute resolution resources for both employees and employers, let’s connect on LinkedIn for new updates or contact me here. You may also follow me on Instagram.
This communication is not legal advice. It is educational only. For legal advice, consult with an experienced employment law attorney in your state or city.